If you’re anything like me, you’ve probably experienced the annoyance of seeing your website’s rating vary with each algorithm update. But don’t worry—I’ve uncovered a simple 3-step approach to help futureproof your website. Here, I’m delighted to share my SEO forecast with you, which includes insights, statistics, and tactics that many websites neglect.
What is SEO Forecasting?
SEO forecasting is a process that allows you to predict future website traffic, search engine visibility, and other SEO-related data as a result of your SEO efforts.
To assess outcomes, you can use a variety of data sources and analytics, including keyword search volume, SERP ranking, and current traffic. In this article, we’ll go over the most typical SEO forecasting strategies, which you may tailor to your own needs and team dynamics.
Can You Reliably Forecast SEO Growth?
Simply put: no. This is primarily because, while SEO projections rely on a variety of metrics, the data used is historical. And it’s impossible to predict where and when trends or algorithms will shift.
For example, when NFTs were popular, it made sense to focus more on NFT-related keywords. However, we no longer hear anything about them, thus relying on historical data for organic search forecasting of that keyword may produce inaccurate results.
When Shouldn’t You Utilize SEO Forecasting?
Let’s take a look at the disadvantages of SEO forecasting (there are very few!).
If you’re dealing with a difficult client who expects guaranteed results rather than projections, SEO forecasting may not be the best option. In that instance, SEO forecasting may not be appropriate because it can only provide approximations.
And, while data-driven, these projections are not always realistic for trends and rapidly growing industries because they cannot predict what the audience’s interest, user behavior, or search intent will be in the future.
When a new technology (such as ChatGPT or Search Generative Experience) enters the market and changes the sector, the forecasts may also be incorrect.
Which Data, First-Party or Third-Party, Should You Consider When Forecasting SEO Performance?
When it comes to SEO forecasting, there are two sorts of data to consider: first-party data and third-party data. First-party data analyzes your own results, such as your current clicks from Google’s organic results, conversion rate, click-through rate (CTR), average order value, seasonality, and so on.
To gain such insights, you would most likely employ Google Search Console and Google Analytics, as well as your CRM data and a reliable third-party SEO tool.
Third-party data, on the other hand, gives information about your competitors, such as which keywords they rank for based on search volume, how much traffic they receive through organic channels and which URLs they visit, the number of backlinks they have, and so on.
Such data is available on software like SE Ranking, where you can simply paste your competitor’s URL into our Competitor Analysis Tool and all of their information will appear.
Experts typically recommend using both first and third-party data to gain a more comprehensive understanding of your SEO projections.
What Steps Should Be Taken Before Performing SEO Forecasting To Increase Accuracy?
#1. Analyze metrics for SEO forecasting
The most critical factor in achieving accurate results is understanding which metrics are required and which are not. Your SEO forecast will be incomplete unless you have access to vital data such as keyword search traffic.
On the other hand, whereas other variables such as clients, average order price, and so on are all directly tied to business forecasting, they can have little impact when conducting an SEO forecast.
#2. Consider your data kind and source
For example, if you’re performing SEO forecasts to predict your organic traffic based on your competitors’ current traffic and how it’s trending, you’ll need to use third-party data; however, if you’re doing it to understand how to allocate your budget based on your previous spend vs. the results you achieved, you’ll need to use first-party data.
#3. Set your goals for SEO forecasting
Another critical component of SEO forecasting is determining your first forecasting objectives.
Consider whether you’re doing this to better understand how to use your budget, prioritize your labor, or predict the outcome of a specific term or keyword cluster.
3-Step Plan for SEO Forecast
Did you know that 93% of internet experiences start with a search engine? (Source: Forrester). With such a startling figure, it’s evident that mastering SEO is essential for every organization. I remember dealing with a customer whose traffic dropped dramatically overnight owing to an unanticipated algorithm update. That event showed me the necessity of anticipating changes rather than simply responding to them. This three-step plan focuses on a proactive approach.
Step #1. Use Semantic Search
Semantic search is changing the way search engines analyze and rank material. Google’s algorithm now prioritizes understanding user intent and context over just matching keywords. This means that your content must address the queries that your audience is posing.
Actionable Tip:
- Create Comprehensive Content: Write detailed articles that cover all facets of a subject. For example, if you’re writing on “healthy eating,” add sections on meal planning, nutritional benefits, and recipes.
- Use Structured Data: Include schema markup to assist search engines in better understanding your material. This can help you get visibility in search results.
- Analyze User Intent: Use tools like Google Analytics to learn what your target audience is looking for and modify your content accordingly.
Fact to Consider: Websites containing structured data are 36% more likely to rank higher than those without (source: Search Engine Journal).
Step #2. Optimize for Voice Search
With the proliferation of smart speakers and voice assistants, optimizing for voice search is no longer an option. Comscore predicts that by 2024, voice searches will account for 50% of all searches. Voice search searches are often lengthier and more conversational, so your content must adapt.
Actionable Tip:
- Focus on Long-Tail Keywords: Voice searches are frequently formulated as inquiries. Optimize your content for these natural, conversational questions.
- FAQ Sections: Include FAQ sections on your website to directly address typical voice search queries.
- Mobile Optimization: Make sure your site is mobile-friendly, as many voice searches are performed on mobile devices.
I once redesigned a client’s website by including long-tail keywords and a comprehensive FAQ page. Within three months, their voice search traffic jumped by forty percent.
Step #3. Improve User Experience
User experience is really important in SEO. Google’s algorithms are increasingly favoring websites that provide an outstanding UX. This covers page loading speed, mobile optimization, and general site usability.
Actionable Tip:
- Improve Page Load Speed: Use tools like Google PageSpeed Insights to discover and resolve issues that are slowing down your website.
- Mobile-First Design: Use Google’s mobile-first indexing to ensure your site looks and works effectively on mobile devices.
- Engaging Content: Use graphics, movies, and interactive components to keep users interested and lower bounce rates.
Stat to Consider: Websites that load in 2 seconds have an average bounce rate of 9%, whilst those that take 5 seconds have a bounce rate of 38% (Source: Google).
How to Make SEO Forecasts Using Historical Data
It is the simplest method for forecasting your website’s organic growth that does not require mathematics or technological knowledge.
Let’s say Google Analytics 4 statistics show that your website’s traffic has climbed by 9% in the last year. Based on my experience, that is a reasonable outcome to be proud of. If you continue to use the same method, your website will most likely increase by another 9% the following year.
I’ve frequently used this strategy to report SEO progress and provide quick, data-driven estimations. However, this strategy has a significant drawback: it ignores Google algorithm upgrades, search patterns, and competitors’ SEO efforts.
If you employ this forecasting method, notify your SEO team or customer about the data accuracy.
How to Make SEO Forecast Based on Competitor Performance
Another approach to manual forecasting is suitable for beginners. Unlike the previous strategy, this one takes into account competitors’ efforts.
Here’s how to use competition data to anticipate SEO growth:
#1. Identify your direct competition
First, look up your organic competitors who rank for your desired keywords. I propose utilizing Semrush Organic Research to swiftly evaluate competitors using common keywords.
#2. Analyze backlinks
According to the Semrush 2024 study, backlinks are still among the most important ranking variables. If your competitors generate many new backlinks and you don’t, they may outperform you in organic search results.
In the second phase, select a few competitors who have a solid backlink profile. Now, determine whether you can mimic their techniques by contacting similar websites for guest blogging opportunities or broken link development.
I also recommend researching the current Google core algorithm improvements, as Google strongly cautions against using:
- Expired domains for link-building
- Scaled material used to affect search rankings.
- Use site reputation to manipulate search rankings.
#3. Track competition keyword ranks
At this point, I strongly advise monitoring competitors’ top-ranking keywords that are related to your website. This way, you’ll know which keywords to target and can forecast your website’s growth, providing you surpass your competitors.
Use Semrush’s Keyword Gap report to identify common keywords and unique chances for your website. I also propose addressing the following questions while researching rival keywords:
- What is their keyword strategy?
- Are there any specific terms that they consistently outrank you for?
- Can you develop better, more informative content for the same terms?
#4. Evaluate competition content performance
Analyze your competitors’ top-ranking content for your target keywords, which your website does not already rank for. In particular, check:
- Content-Length
- Content Structure
- Formats for content include videos, infographics, blog articles, and more.
Can you generate in-depth content that surpasses theirs in quality?
#5. Forecast your SEO growth using the facts you’ve gathered.
You already know which terms your competitors rank higher for in organic search results. You also know their best-performing keywords that are relevant to your firm, but you haven’t targeted them yet.
With this vital information, you can use the algorithms and methodologies indicated above to forecast organic traffic.
However, you shouldn’t expect to outrank established competitors immediately. You must be realistic in your SEO forecasting and set feasible targets for traffic growth and ranking improvements.
Tools for SEO Forecasting
Using the tools listed below, you can collect first- and third-party data for SEO forecasting.
#1. Google Analytics
Google Analytics is a website analytics tool that monitors traffic from many sources, including organic search. It is useful for tracking search traffic over time and comparing eras.
Google Analytics allows you to track user actions such as conversions. As a result, you can rely on this tool to obtain conversion rate and income information.
#2. Google Search Console
Google Search Console is a search analytics tool that provides data on how your website performs in Google searches. It’s a free tool that works with several commercial SEO tools listed below.
This dashboard displays how frequently your site appears in SERPs (impressions) and how many clicks it receives. As a result, Google Search Console is a dependable source of click-through rates.
#3. SEOmonitor
SEOmonitor is an SEO forecasting tool that automatically calculates SEO performance. It aids in traffic prediction, SEO goal setting, and the development of a consistent strategy.
#4. Semrush
Semrush is an SEO software that includes keyword research and traffic analysis tools. With its keyword research tools, you can determine the projected search volume for each topic and create keyword clusters for your content strategy.
Its traffic monitoring tools allow you to monitor organic traffic for your website and competitors. Using competitor data, you may generate a more detailed SEO forecast.
#5. Ahrefs
Ahrefs is an SEO tool that shows search traffic and keyword data for every URL. You can use it to forecast SEO for your website or competitors. As a result, Ahrefs is a good option for firms looking to outrank competitors in their industry.
You can use Ahrefs to do more than just track keywords. You can also look into competitors’ backlink profiles to see where there are opportunities to build links. These measures can supplement your on-page SEO and content marketing efforts.
#6. SE Ranking
SE Ranking, as an SEO tool, can aid with keyword research, traffic metrics, and competitive analysis. However, it may also estimate your SEO potential automatically.
All you need to do is create a SE Ranking dashboard for your website and enter your goal keywords. Then, give your average conversion rate and revenue per customer.
The program generates an automatic forecast of your existing traffic and income. It also estimates traffic volume assuming all of your target keywords rank in the top ten search results.
How To Implement an SEO Strategy Template
To assist you in streamlining these stages, I created an SEO Strategy Template. This template walks you through each stage, ensuring that you cover all areas, from semantic search to UX upgrades. Using this template, you may systematically improve your website’s SEO performance while saving time and avoiding frequent mistakes.
How Accurate is SEO Forecasting?
Here’s the thing about forecasting SEO potential. Any projection of future search volume, organic traffic, or SEO value will never be completely accurate.
Why? Even with extensive research and modeling, no one can anticipate SEO effectiveness perfectly. After all, SEO gurus cannot predict the future.
Forecasting, on the other hand, can provide an idea of the results you might expect from targeting particular keywords. That is why we advocate using this approach to plan and strategize—and then monitor the success of your strategy each month.
Conclusion
Staying ahead in SEO necessitates a proactive and complete strategy. By embracing semantic search, optimizing for voice search, and improving user experience, you can futureproof your website against algorithm changes. Remember that the key to success is to anticipate changes and alter your strategy accordingly. How are you going to futureproof your website’s SEO approach today?
Related Articles
- The Best SEO Automation Software Tools for 2024
- Want to Dominate Google? Hire an SEO Team With These 5 Critical Skills
- SEO Monitoring for Beginners: Why It’s Crucial (And How to Get Started)
- How PR and SEO Can Work Together (Growth Hack)
- What Is Link Farming and Why Is It Considered a Black Hat SEO Tactic?
References
